MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$69.51
-0.45 (-0.64%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.11
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $69.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.20 to $75.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $67.23, while resistance sits at $79.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.00 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $67.23, while resistance sits at $79.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.00 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$66.20 -
$75.04
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($85.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -10.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$66.20 -
$75.04
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.23
Resistance Level
$79.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.28
Wall Street Target
$85.00
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.9%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$70.66
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$71.01
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$69.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.7%)
$159.77
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 1.7%)
$73.64
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 1.7%)
$62.59
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.49
Bull Case
$69.16
(-1%)
Analyst growth -9.1%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$62.87
(-10%)
Market implied -9.1%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$47.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Phillippe Lord
SELL
6950 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced MTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTH price and gamma walls.
