MTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation
$61.84
1.77 (2.95%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
-14.93%
90d:
-6.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTH trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.31
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTH is currently trading at $61.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.52 to $72.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.03, while resistance sits at $63.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (29th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.00 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.03, while resistance sits at $63.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (29th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.00 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$60.52 -
$72.34
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
29th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 29th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($83.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$60.52 -
$72.34
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.50
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.03
Resistance Level
$63.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$83.00
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.8%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.44
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$55.22
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$52.19
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$61.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 27.8%)
$351.61
(+469%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 27.8%)
$129.21
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 27.8%)
$109.83
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.35
Bull Case
$76.64
(+25%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$69.68
(+14%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$39.96
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$73.04
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 5:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alison Sasser
SELL
151 shares
2026-02-24
Austin M Woffinden
SELL
143 shares
2026-02-24
Hilla Sferruzza
SELL
10928 shares
2026-02-23
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