MTRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTRX - Matrix Service Co
$14.32
0.03 (0.21%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTRX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTRX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.68
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTRX is currently trading at $14.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.99 to $13.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $14.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTRX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.50 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $14.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTRX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.50 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$11.99 -
$13.92
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.99 -
$13.92
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.18
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.17
Resistance Level
$14.64
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.45
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.0%
Profit Margin
-2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.92
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$13.56
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$13.20
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$14.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 184.6%)
$69.62
(+387%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 184.6%)
$48.23
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 184.6%)
$40.99
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$15.45
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTRX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John D Chandler
BUY
2300 shares
2025-09-16
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Advanced MTRX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTRX price and gamma walls.
