MTRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTRX - Matrix Service Co
$11.13
-0.26 (-2.28%)
▼
5d:
+1.92%
30d:
+1.27%
90d:
-5.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTRX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 175% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTRX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 175% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.51
28.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTRX is currently trading at $11.13, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.49 to $11.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.88, while resistance sits at $11.79.
Market Sentiment: MTRX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+66.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.88, while resistance sits at $11.79.
Market Sentiment: MTRX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+66.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$10.49 -
$11.34
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.8% below Wall St target ($19.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.49 -
$11.34
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.80
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.88
Resistance Level
$11.79
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.14
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(+66.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.0%
Profit Margin
-2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.95
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.52
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.11
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$11.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 356.2%)
$65.52
(+475%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 356.2%)
$38.44
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 356.2%)
$32.68
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$12.83
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTRX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nancy E Austin
SELL
4193 shares
2026-02-18
Shawn P Payne
SELL
5231 shares
2025-11-25
Shawn P Payne
SELL
3019 shares
2025-11-20
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