MTSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTSI - MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc
$375.60
-7.96 (-2.08%)
▼
5d:
+4.37%
30d:
+43.68%
90d:
+53.83%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MTSI is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $310 2026-06-18 with 47 OI. Call ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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1 traders called MTSI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MTSI is 11.0% above its trading range ($338.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MTSI is 11.0% above its trading range ($338.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$333.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTSI is currently trading at $375.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $249.88 to $338.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 54.9) compared to its historical average (43.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $284.31, while resistance sits at $401.25.
Market Sentiment: MTSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $284.31, while resistance sits at $401.25.
Market Sentiment: MTSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$249.88 -
$338.46
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
MTSI is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($389.43)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$249.88 -
$338.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$284.31
Resistance Level
$401.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
54.87
Wall Street Target
$389.43
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.9%
Profit Margin
16.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.8% premium
PE vs Historical
54.9 vs 43.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$404.90
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$436.48
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$470.52
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 55→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$374.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 54.9, Growth: 36.2%)
$949.05
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 36.2%)
$381.71
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 36.2%)
$324.45
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (83x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (55x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 82.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.54
Bull Case
$453.54
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 86.8
Base Case
$375.60
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 82.6
Bear Case
$287.33
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 74.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-27
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Robert Dennehy
SELL
18398 shares
2026-02-26
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Advanced MTSI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTSI price and gamma walls.
