MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$39.90
-0.74 (-1.82%)
▼
5d:
+6.06%
30d:
+8.22%
90d:
+24.92%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.68
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.89
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $39.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.64 to $40.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.15, while resistance sits at $42.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.15, while resistance sits at $42.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$37.64 -
$40.94
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.64 -
$40.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.15
Resistance Level
$42.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.91
Wall Street Target
$41.57
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.58
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.92
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.63
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$41.55
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 4.8%)
$94.54
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$46.73
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 4.8%)
$39.72
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.70 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.47
Bull Case
$49.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$40.64
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$31.09
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$56.99
(+40.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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