MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$31.88
0.37 (1.17%)
▲
5d:
-9.92%
30d:
-16.02%
90d:
-19.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.90
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $31.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.96 to $38.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.14 (+38.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.14 (+38.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$33.96 -
$38.68
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.5% below Wall St target ($44.14)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.96 -
$38.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.19
Resistance Level
$40.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.21
Wall Street Target
$44.14
(+38.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.69
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$25.82
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$23.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→14)
$36.08
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -5.2%)
$64.27
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: -5.2%)
$27.18
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -5.2%)
$23.10
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 10.07 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.17
Bull Case
$38.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$31.88
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$24.39
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$49.49
(+55.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 10:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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