MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$24.97
-0.14 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
-7.45%
30d:
-0.44%
90d:
-11.01%
SELL
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⚠️ CAUTION: MWA is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
⚠️ CAUTION: MWA is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.17
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $24.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.12 to $26.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.18, while resistance sits at $26.29.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+24.1%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.18, while resistance sits at $26.29.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+24.1%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.12 -
$26.14
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($31.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.12 -
$26.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.18
Resistance Level
$26.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.93
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.20
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$23.45
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$22.72
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$24.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.2%)
$40.85
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 6.2%)
$29.88
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 6.2%)
$25.40
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$32.80
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$29.82
(+19%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$17.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$27.43
(+9.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-02-19
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