MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$25.82
0.31 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
-11.18%
90d:
-14.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MWA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MWA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.87
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $25.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.43 to $29.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+26.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+26.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.43 -
$29.16
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($32.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.43 -
$29.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.10
Resistance Level
$28.16
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.15
Wall Street Target
$32.20
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 17.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.64
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$23.80
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$23.00
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$25.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.9%)
$42.60
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 6.9%)
$31.16
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$26.49
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$34.05
(+34%)
Analyst growth 19.7%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$30.95
(+21%)
Market implied 19.7%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$17.58
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 17.9
Stabilization Target:
$28.28
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-02-19
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