MZTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MZTI - The Marzetti Company Common Stock
$112.98
-1.03 (-0.90%)
▼
5d:
+0.61%
30d:
-18.64%
90d:
-28.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MZTI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MZTI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.72
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.18
3.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MZTI is currently trading at $112.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.58 to $136.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MZTI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+41.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MZTI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+41.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$115.58 -
$136.56
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.1% below Wall St target ($159.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.58 -
$136.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.06
Resistance Level
$121.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.65
Wall Street Target
$159.40
(+41.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 20.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.83
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$95.42
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$87.69
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$113.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$193.33
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 6.6%)
$136.93
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 6.6%)
$116.39
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.39
Bull Case
$142.13
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$129.21
(+13%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$77.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$145.80
(+29.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MZTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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