NHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$74.63
-0.27 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
-0.84%
30d:
-13.19%
90d:
-16.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NHI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NHI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.42
Based on 1.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $74.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.42 to $84.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $72.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.25 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $72.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.25 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$74.42 -
$84.03
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($88.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.42 -
$84.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.43
Resistance Level
$76.82
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.60
Wall Street Target
$88.25
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.0%
Profit Margin
36.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 23.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$68.78
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$66.03
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$74.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -1.2%)
$77.22
(+4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: -1.2%)
$72.07
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: -1.2%)
$61.26
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$96.29
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.9%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$87.54
(+17%)
Market implied 16.9%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$50.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$84.42
(+13.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 6:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-15
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