NKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$44.63
-8.19 (-15.51%)
▼
5d:
-15.76%
30d:
-24.85%
90d:
-27.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NKE is down 15.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NKE is down 15.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.71
36.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $44.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.43 to $60.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (27.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 15.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.97 (+68.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 15.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.97 (+68.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$51.43 -
$60.55
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-15.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.0% below Wall St target ($74.97)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$51.43 -
$60.55
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.19
Resistance Level
$54.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.35
Wall Street Target
$74.97
(+68.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.1%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 27.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.17
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$36.15
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$32.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→28)
$46.57
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 46.2%)
$160.93
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 46.2%)
$139.36
(+212%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 46.2%)
$118.45
(+165%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$79.86
(+52%)
Analyst growth 38.6%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$72.60
(+38%)
Market implied 38.6%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$35.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 27.7
Stabilization Target:
$63.88
(+43.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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