NL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NL - NL Industries, Inc.
$5.76
-0.04 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
-3.19%
30d:
-9.0%
90d:
+5.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.31
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NL is currently trading at $5.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.71 to $6.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.36, while resistance sits at $5.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.36, while resistance sits at $5.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$5.71 -
$6.14
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.71 -
$6.14
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.48
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.36
Resistance Level
$5.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.61
Wall Street Target
$6.00
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.5%
Profit Margin
-23.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.70
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$5.65
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$5.59
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$5.75
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$12.14
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.4
Base Case
$11.04
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.6
Bear Case
$3.75
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$5.93
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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