NL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NL - NL Industries, Inc.
$6.13
0.21 (3.55%)
▲
5d:
-0.49%
30d:
+12.27%
90d:
+1.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.19
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.08
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NL is currently trading at $6.13, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.58 to $6.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5.86, while resistance sits at $6.45. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (92th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $5.86, while resistance sits at $6.45. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (92th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$5.58 -
$6.30
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
92th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 92th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 18.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.58 -
$6.30
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.07
(17.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.86
Resistance Level
$6.45
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.03
Wall Street Target
$6.00
(-2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.5%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.23
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$6.33
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$6.43
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.19
Bull Case
$13.02
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$11.84
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$4.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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