NTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTB - The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
$54.69
-0.27 (-0.49%)
▼
5d:
-2.93%
30d:
-2.3%
90d:
+3.7%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.17
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTB is currently trading at $54.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.09 to $56.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$55.09 -
$56.31
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($59.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.09 -
$56.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.47
Resistance Level
$56.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.20
Wall Street Target
$59.00
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Profit Margin
39.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$52.85
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$51.95
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$54.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.0%)
$175.18
(+220%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 6.0%)
$65.12
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$55.35
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.77
Bull Case
$69.25
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.5%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$62.96
(+15%)
Market implied 15.5%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$37.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$57.33
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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