NTGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTGR - NETGEAR, Inc.
$22.95
1.11 (5.08%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+10.07%
90d:
-6.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
NTGR is up 3.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $20 2026-06-18 with 4,006 OI. Put ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTGR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 16.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTGR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 16.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.74
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTGR is currently trading at $22.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.50 to $22.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 39.1) compared to its historical average (67.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.68, while resistance sits at $26.15. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: NTGR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.67 (+59.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.68, while resistance sits at $26.15. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: NTGR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.67 (+59.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$20.50 -
$22.28
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 59.8% below Wall St target ($36.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.50 -
$22.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.06
(9.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.68
Resistance Level
$26.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.12
Wall Street Target
$36.67
(+59.8%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
-2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
39.1 vs 67.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.65
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.59
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→68)
$28.96
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.1, Growth: 410.2%)
$77.46
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 410.2%)
$44.26
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 410.2%)
$37.62
(+64%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.1 to 67.7
Stabilization Target:
$39.72
(+73.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+73.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pramod Badjate
SELL
3000 shares
2026-02-02
Pramod Badjate
SELL
4000 shares
2025-11-19
Graeme Mclindin
SELL
1205 shares
2025-11-03
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Advanced NTGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTGR price and gamma walls.
