NTGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTGR - NETGEAR, Inc.
$20.91
0.03 (0.14%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NTGR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NTGR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.20
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.09
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTGR is currently trading at $20.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.59 to $24.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 83.6) compared to its historical average (95.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+86.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+86.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$21.59 -
$24.24
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 86.5% below Wall St target ($39.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.59 -
$24.24
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.12
(10.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.50
Resistance Level
$22.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
83.64
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+86.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
-3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
83.6 vs 95.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.01
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$19.15
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$18.33
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 84→95)
$20.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 83.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$25.73
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.2%)
$6.86
(-67%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$5.83
(-72%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 83.6 to 95.3
Stabilization Target:
$23.82
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley Maiorino
SELL
13063 shares
2025-10-09
Shravan Goli
SELL
2047 shares
2025-09-29
Shravan Goli
SELL
11757 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced NTGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTGR price and gamma walls.
