NTRS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTRS - Northern Trust Corp
$164.30
1.33 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
+2.67%
30d:
+5.27%
90d:
+13.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
NTRS is down 3.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $170 2026-07-17 with 53 OI. Call ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTRS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTRS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.69
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTRS is currently trading at $164.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.58 to $166.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTRS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $167.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTRS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $167.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$153.58 -
$166.62
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($171.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$153.58 -
$166.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.02
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.98
Resistance Level
$167.19
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.97
Wall Street Target
$171.00
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 13.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.79
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$165.29
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$165.78
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$163.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 3.4%)
$286.37
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 3.4%)
$181.46
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$154.24
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.55
Bull Case
$220.83
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.2%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$200.76
(+22%)
Market implied 23.2%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$110.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Guy Gibson
SELL
3009 shares
2026-03-05
David W Fox Jr
SELL
3255 shares
2026-03-04
David W Fox Jr
SELL
1450 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced NTRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTRS price and gamma walls.
