NVMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$457.84
-39.79 (-8.00%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$357.48
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$221.97
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $457.84, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $352.42 to $461.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 51.2) compared to its historical average (37.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $436.33, while resistance sits at $507.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVMI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $393.75. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $436.33, while resistance sits at $507.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVMI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $393.75. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$352.42 -
$461.97
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.0%)
- BEARISH: Trading 20.9% above Wall St target ($393.75)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.9% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$352.42 -
$461.97
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$31.74
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$436.33
Resistance Level
$507.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.16
Wall Street Target
$393.75
(-20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.9% premium
PE vs Historical
51.2 vs 37.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$551.87
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$612.03
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$678.74
(+36%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$497.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.2, Growth: 12.1%)
$701.28
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$305.66
(-39%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$259.81
(-48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 44.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.21
Bull Case
$552.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.1
Base Case
$457.84
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.8
Bear Case
$350.25
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NVMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVMI price and gamma walls.
