NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$6589.83
90.49 (1.39%)
▲
5d:
+1.38%
30d:
-11.14%
90d:
-10.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11589.62
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7196.24
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $6589.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6429.76 to $7238.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6658.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8004.40 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6658.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8004.40 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$6429.76 -
$7238.09
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($8004.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6429.76 -
$7238.09
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6301.03
Resistance Level
$6658.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.59
Wall Street Target
$8004.40
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.1%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6286.70
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5997.51
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$5721.62
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$6586.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$14863.51
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$9705.05
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$8249.29
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $436.30
Bull Case
$7251.44
(+11%)
Analyst growth 3.5%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$6592.22
(+1%)
Market implied 3.5%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$4331.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$7586.30
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 5:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-13
Matthew B Kelpy
SELL
500 shares
2026-02-10
Susan Williamson Ross
SELL
200 shares
2026-02-05
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