NVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVR - NVR, Inc.
$7635.73
11.97 (0.16%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13474.88
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8366.84
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVR is currently trading at $7635.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7323.66 to $7665.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7419.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7419.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$7323.66 -
$7665.67
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8370.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7323.66 -
$7665.67
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7419.92
Resistance Level
$7948.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.25
Wall Street Target
$8370.50
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.1%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7356.93
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7099.44
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$6850.96
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$7630.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$16133.41
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$11756.42
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 15.5%)
$9992.96
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $436.21
Bull Case
$9022.23
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.6%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$8202.03
(+7%)
Market implied 7.6%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$5185.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$8491.69
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexandra A Jung
SELL
200 shares
2025-08-26
Alexandra A Jung
SELL
50 shares
2025-08-22
Matthew B Kelpy
SELL
600 shares
2025-08-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVR price and gamma walls.
