NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$150.25
0.50 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
+3.34%
30d:
-1.2%
90d:
-6.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$227.78
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$141.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $150.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.33 to $152.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $150.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $150.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$145.33 -
$152.39
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($153.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.33 -
$152.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.45
Resistance Level
$150.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.04
Wall Street Target
$153.87
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.3%
Profit Margin
23.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.95
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$146.18
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$144.42
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$149.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$308.31
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$210.44
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$178.87
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.99
Bull Case
$227.50
(+52%)
Analyst growth 42.4%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$206.82
(+38%)
Market implied 42.4%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$98.76
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.6
Stabilization Target:
$155.29
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 12:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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