ORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$12.22
-0.30 (-2.40%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $12.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.09 to $11.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.4) is in line with its historical norms (34.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.58, while resistance sits at $13.17.
Market Sentiment: ORN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.58, while resistance sits at $13.17.
Market Sentiment: ORN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$10.09 -
$11.82
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with -0.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.09 -
$11.82
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.79
(14.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.58
Resistance Level
$13.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.42
Wall Street Target
$13.13
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
37.4 vs 34.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.86
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$13.21
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$13.56
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→35)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.4, Growth: 62.4%)
$42.25
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 62.4%)
$25.18
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 62.4%)
$21.41
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$16.43
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.9%, PE expands to 49.1
Base Case
$14.93
(+22%)
Market implied 23.9%, PE stable at 44.6
Bear Case
$8.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORN price and gamma walls.
