PAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$147.98
-0.43 (-0.29%)
▼
5d:
+1.68%
30d:
-6.06%
90d:
-10.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
PAG is down 4.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $165 2026-05-15 with 21 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.48
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $147.98, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.35 to $159.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $150.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $180.78 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $150.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $180.78 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$145.35 -
$159.88
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($180.78)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$145.35 -
$159.88
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.41
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.12
Resistance Level
$150.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.58
Wall Street Target
$180.78
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.1%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.81
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$139.35
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$135.03
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$148.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.9%)
$352.07
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 3.9%)
$166.31
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 3.9%)
$141.36
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.13
Bull Case
$154.39
(+6%)
Analyst growth -0.2%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$140.35
(-4%)
Market implied -0.2%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$95.61
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.6
Stabilization Target:
$162.70
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michelle Hulgrave
SELL
2100 shares
2025-11-24
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Advanced PAG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
