PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$11.58
0.03 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
+1.58%
30d:
+0.17%
90d:
+1.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.82
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.31
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $11.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.14 to $11.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+34.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+34.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.14 -
$11.74
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.5% below Wall St target ($15.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.14 -
$11.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.02
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.46
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+34.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-85.2%
Profit Margin
18.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.12
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.67
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.25
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$49.55
(+328%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 13.6%)
$16.98
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 13.6%)
$14.43
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$25.41
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$23.10
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$7.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.03
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 9:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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