PBYI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBYI - PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY INC
$7.57
-0.21 (-2.70%)
▼
5d:
+9.87%
30d:
+28.74%
90d:
+23.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
PBYI is down 5.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-04-17 with 7 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PBYI is 7.4% above fair value ($7.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PBYI is 7.4% above fair value ($7.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.49
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBYI is currently trading at $7.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.89 to $7.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBYI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.05, while resistance sits at $7.90.
Market Sentiment: PBYI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBYI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.05, while resistance sits at $7.90.
Market Sentiment: PBYI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$5.89 -
$7.05
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.4% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 33.9% above Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with 27.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Extended 7.4% above fair value - wait for pullback
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.89 -
$7.05
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.27
(16.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.05
Resistance Level
$7.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.65
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-33.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.4%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.76
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$7.95
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$8.15
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 62.5%)
$45.13
(+496%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 62.5%)
$25.55
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 62.5%)
$21.72
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.61
Bull Case
$9.12
(+21%)
Analyst growth 6.6%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$8.29
(+10%)
Market implied 6.6%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$5.29
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 13, 2026 7:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBYI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alan H Auerbach
SELL
18012 shares
2026-01-07
Douglas M Hunt
SELL
5014 shares
2026-01-07
Alan H Auerbach
SELL
16938 shares
2026-01-06
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