PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$113.02
1.30 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+5.51%
30d:
+12.93%
90d:
+10.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCTY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCTY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.85
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $113.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.26 to $110.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $102.19, while resistance sits at $118.30.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.95 (+35.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $102.19, while resistance sits at $118.30.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.95 (+35.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$101.26 -
$110.39
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.3% below Wall St target ($152.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$101.26 -
$110.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.19
Resistance Level
$118.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.99
Wall Street Target
$152.95
(+35.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.3%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.03
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$101.36
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$95.99
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$113.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$238.79
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$141.03
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 7.7%)
$119.87
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.68
Bull Case
$228.51
(+102%)
Analyst growth 85.9%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$207.74
(+84%)
Market implied 85.9%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$75.97
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$133.14
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 6:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew Cappotelli
SELL
69 shares
2025-12-04
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