PD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PD - PagerDuty, Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$6.72
-0.02 (-0.30%) ▼
5d: +2.44%
30d: +11.81%
90d: -38.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

PD is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $7.5 2026-06-18 with 682 OI. Call ratio: 93% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.17
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.18
17.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PD is currently trading at $6.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.06 to $6.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.90, while resistance sits at $7.14.

Market Sentiment: PD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $6.06 - $6.73
Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 73.8%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.00)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $6.06 - $6.73
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $5.90
Resistance Level $7.14
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Apr 28, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.63
Wall Street Target $8.00 (+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.7%
Profit Margin 35.3%
Valuation Discount vs History -13.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical 5.6 vs 8.6 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -13.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $6.05 (-10%)
2-Year Target $5.44 (-19%)
3-Year Target $4.90 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→9) $7.49 (+11%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.6, Growth: 6.2%) $29.51 (+339%)
Base: (SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 6.2%) $8.05 (+20%)
Bear: (PE: 4.8, Growth: 6.2%) $6.85 (+2%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case $4.74 (-30%)
Analyst growth -36.1%, PE expands to 4.0
Base Case $4.30 (-36%)
Market implied -36.1%, PE stable at 3.6
Bear Case $4.58 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 8.6
Stabilization Target: $10.27 (+52.9%)
PE Expansion Potential: +52.9%
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Last updated: April 29, 2026 5:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dan Alexandru Solomon SELL 266667 shares 2025-12-30

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Advanced PD Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PD price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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