PHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PHM - Pultegroup, Inc.
$125.09
-2.17 (-1.71%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.19
Based on -1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.90
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $125.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.89 to $129.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$118.89 -
$129.75
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($139.69)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with -1.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$118.89 -
$129.75
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.02
Resistance Level
$134.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.91
Wall Street Target
$139.69
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.42
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$131.62
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$133.86
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$127.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -6.1%)
$197.43
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: -6.1%)
$105.42
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: -6.1%)
$89.61
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.96
Bull Case
$111.82
(-11%)
Analyst growth -17.5%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$101.66
(-19%)
Market implied -17.5%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$83.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PHM price and gamma walls.
