PTON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$4.26
-0.17 (-3.95%)
▼
5d:
+8.27%
30d:
+5.85%
90d:
-29.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
PTON is up 6.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $5 2026-04-17 with 23,843 OI. Put ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.50
43.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $4.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.82 to $4.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: PTON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.88 (+77.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: PTON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.88 (+77.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$3.82 -
$4.22
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PTON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 77.8% below Wall St target ($7.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.82 -
$4.22
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.71
Resistance Level
$4.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.92
Wall Street Target
$7.88
(+77.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
-2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 22.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.99
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.59
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.23
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→22)
$4.52
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 77.7%)
$21.03
(+375%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 77.7%)
$14.95
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 77.7%)
$12.71
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$6.20
(+40.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Elizabeth F Coddington
SELL
21819 shares
2026-03-16
Nick V Caldwell
SELL
42632 shares
2026-03-16
Dion C Sanders
SELL
146844 shares
2026-02-20
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Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
