RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$33.09
0.50 (1.53%)
ā²
5d:
+0.79%
30d:
-4.14%
90d:
-9.19%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: RDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
ā BUY SIGNAL: RDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.94
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.87
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $33.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.62 to $34.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.67 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.67 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$32.62 -
$34.40
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.62 -
$34.40
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.19
Resistance Level
$33.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.13
Wall Street Target
$39.67
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Profit Margin
48.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 7.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.27
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$29.55
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$27.92
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6ā7)
$33.24
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.2%)
$152.75
(+362%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$41.91
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 8.2%)
$35.62
(+8%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$43.90
(+34%)
Analyst growth 22.9%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$39.91
(+22%)
Market implied 22.9%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$22.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.39
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric Ray
SELL
13957 shares
2025-12-02
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