RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$32.90
-0.28 (-0.84%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.93
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $32.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.93 to $36.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $32.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.33 (+18.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $32.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.33 (+18.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$32.93 -
$36.19
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RDN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.93 -
$36.19
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.42
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.47
Resistance Level
$33.68
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.46
Wall Street Target
$39.33
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Profit Margin
45.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.62
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$32.06
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$31.52
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$33.36
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.2%)
$112.06
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 4.2%)
$37.51
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 4.2%)
$31.88
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$40.67
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.3%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$36.98
(+12%)
Market implied 12.3%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$22.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$35.12
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
10000 shares
2025-09-18
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Advanced RDN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RDN price and gamma walls.
