SAFE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAFE - Safehold Inc.
$14.11
0.15 (1.07%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAFE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAFE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.81
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAFE is currently trading at $14.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.67 to $14.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.64, while resistance sits at $15.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.64 (+40.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAFE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.64, while resistance sits at $15.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.64 (+40.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$13.67 -
$14.79
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($19.64)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.67 -
$14.79
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.38
(9.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.64
Resistance Level
$15.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$19.64
(+40.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.1%
Profit Margin
28.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.90
(0%)
2-Year Target
$13.85
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$13.79
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$14.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 2.9%)
$41.06
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 2.9%)
$15.22
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 2.9%)
$12.94
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$16.50
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.6%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$15.00
(+8%)
Market implied 7.6%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$9.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$14.18
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAFE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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