SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$213.62
3.88 (1.85%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$332.17
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.25
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $213.62, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $198.67 to $216.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $204.94, while resistance sits at $224.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $240.15 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $204.94, while resistance sits at $224.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $240.15 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$198.67 -
$216.87
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($240.15)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$198.67 -
$216.87
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.17
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$204.94
Resistance Level
$224.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.26
Wall Street Target
$240.15
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$211.42
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$213.11
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$214.81
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$209.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.5%)
$384.22
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 16.5%)
$331.82
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 16.5%)
$282.05
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.60
Bull Case
$305.32
(+46%)
Analyst growth 26.6%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$277.56
(+32%)
Market implied 26.6%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$149.04
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Annette N Fritsch
SELL
600 shares
2025-08-08
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Advanced SAM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAM price and gamma walls.
