SCVL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCVL - Shoe Carnival Inc
$15.35
-0.34 (-2.17%)
▼
5d:
-9.86%
30d:
-18.74%
90d:
-24.64%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SCVL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SCVL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.96
Based on -9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCVL is currently trading at $15.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.73 to $18.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+43.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+43.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.73 -
$18.87
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.3% below Wall St target ($22.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.73 -
$18.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.31
Resistance Level
$18.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.37
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+43.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.9%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.03
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$14.71
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$14.40
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$15.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -22.1%)
$23.84
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -22.1%)
$11.19
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -22.1%)
$9.51
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$13.44
(-12%)
Analyst growth -22.1%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$12.22
(-20%)
Market implied -22.1%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$10.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.43
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCVL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
W Kerry Jackson
BUY
31000 shares
2026-04-02
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