SEMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SEMR - SEMrush Holdings, Inc.
$11.95
0.02 (0.13%)
▲
5d:
+0.13%
30d:
+1.06%
90d:
+0.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.79
24.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SEMR is currently trading at $11.95, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.84 to $11.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.8) compared to its historical average (26.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$11.84 -
$11.95
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.84 -
$11.95
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.20
(1.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.91
Resistance Level
$11.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.83
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
-4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 26.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.30
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.70
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$10.13
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→27)
$11.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 28.7%)
$25.43
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.7%)
$24.95
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 28.7%)
$21.20
(+78%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.8 to 26.9
Stabilization Target:
$14.06
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SEMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Oleg Shchegolev
SELL
200000 shares
2026-03-09
Dmitry Melnikov
SELL
1399 shares
2026-01-07
Brian Mulroy
SELL
100078 shares
2025-12-16
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Advanced SEMR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SEMR price and gamma walls.
