SEMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SEMR - SEMrush Holdings, Inc.
$11.89
-0.02 (-0.17%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.28
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.97
0.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SEMR is currently trading at $11.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.87 to $11.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.5) is in line with its historical norms (27.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$11.87 -
$11.92
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 15.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.87 -
$11.92
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.88
Resistance Level
$11.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.47
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
-1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
28.5 vs 27.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$12.05
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$12.13
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.5, Growth: 22.4%)
$21.85
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.4%)
$17.11
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 22.4%)
$14.55
(+22%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SEMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SEMR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SEMR price and gamma walls.
