SGRY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SGRY - Surgery Partners, Inc. Common Stock
$14.03
0.08 (0.57%)
▲
5d:
+1.81%
30d:
+0.21%
90d:
-10.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
SGRY is down 3.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-06-18 with 10,163 OI. Call ratio: 98% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SGRY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SGRY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.45
24.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SGRY is currently trading at $14.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.49 to $14.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SGRY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.39, while resistance sits at $15.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.95 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SGRY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.39, while resistance sits at $15.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.95 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.49 -
$14.56
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($17.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.49 -
$14.56
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.39
Resistance Level
$15.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.85
Wall Street Target
$17.95
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
-2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 26.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$12.75
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$12.19
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$13.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 45.4%)
$42.84
(+207%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 45.4%)
$41.38
(+197%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 45.4%)
$35.17
(+152%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.9 to 26.1
Stabilization Target:
$15.93
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SGRY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David T Doherty
SELL
8867 shares
2026-03-16
Jason Eric Evans
SELL
20400 shares
2026-03-16
Danielle Burkhalter
SELL
3469 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SGRY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SGRY price and gamma walls.
