SHAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHAK - Shake Shack Inc.
$89.33
-1.36 (-1.50%)
▼
5d:
+5.0%
30d:
-8.29%
90d:
+10.05%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
SHAK is down 7.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $115 2026-06-18 with 551 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHAK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 29% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHAK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 29% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHAK is currently trading at $89.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.65 to $95.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.4) compared to its historical average (59.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHAK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $79.91, while resistance sits at $94.85.
Market Sentiment: SHAK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.40 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHAK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $79.91, while resistance sits at $94.85.
Market Sentiment: SHAK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.40 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$86.65 -
$95.07
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.9% below Wall St target ($113.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.65 -
$95.07
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.91
Resistance Level
$94.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.38
Wall Street Target
$113.40
(+26.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
51.4 vs 59.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.31
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$81.47
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$77.80
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→59)
$89.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.4, Growth: 26.8%)
$182.05
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 26.8%)
$72.89
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 26.8%)
$61.95
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (80x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (51x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 80.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$152.68
(+68%)
Analyst growth 58.4%, PE expands to 88.4
Base Case
$138.80
(+53%)
Market implied 58.4%, PE stable at 80.4
Bear Case
$59.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 68.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.4 to 59.0
Stabilization Target:
$102.58
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephanie Ann Sentell
SELL
200 shares
2026-01-20
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-05
Stephanie Ann Sentell
SELL
200 shares
2025-12-19
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Advanced SHAK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHAK price and gamma walls.
