SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$138.70
-1.01 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
+10.08%
30d:
+8.78%
90d:
+22.88%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SIMO is 8.5% above fair value ($127.79). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SIMO is 8.5% above fair value ($127.79). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$249.01
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$154.61
10.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $138.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.02 to $127.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $114.11, while resistance sits at $145.82.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.20 (+13.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $114.11, while resistance sits at $145.82.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.20 (+13.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$114.02 -
$127.79
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.5% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($157.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$114.02 -
$127.79
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.11
Resistance Level
$145.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.12
Wall Street Target
$157.20
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
118.7%
Profit Margin
13.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 19.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.39
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$140.09
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$140.79
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$138.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 21.9%)
$257.27
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 21.9%)
$251.10
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 21.9%)
$213.44
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.64
Bull Case
$262.54
(+102%)
Analyst growth 89.4%, PE expands to 38.1
Base Case
$238.67
(+83%)
Market implied 89.4%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$85.68
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 21, 2026 4:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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