SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$283.72
7.32 (2.65%)
▲
5d:
+9.23%
30d:
+9.13%
90d:
+124.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SIMO trades at premium valuation expecting 8.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SIMO trades at premium valuation expecting 8.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$309.21
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$191.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $283.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $255.00 to $286.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.6) compared to its historical average (22.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $239.15, while resistance sits at $314.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $239.15, while resistance sits at $314.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$255.00 -
$286.62
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($256.70)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.6% growth expectation is conservative given 239% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$255.00 -
$286.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$239.15
Resistance Level
$314.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.58
Wall Street Target
$256.70
(-7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
105.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
238.7%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
28.6 vs 22.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$300.17
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$325.99
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$354.02
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$276.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$377.82
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.0%)
$287.93
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 11.0%)
$244.74
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.37
Bull Case
$333.75
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.7
Base Case
$276.40
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$211.45
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 9:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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