SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$11.78
0.23 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
+3.61%
30d:
-0.93%
90d:
-24.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 09, 2026
Get Alerted When SMPL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.49
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $11.78, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.38 to $13.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.01, while resistance sits at $12.98.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.10 (+56.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.01, while resistance sits at $12.98.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.10 (+56.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.38 -
$13.08
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.7% below Wall St target ($18.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.38 -
$13.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.01
Resistance Level
$12.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.65
Wall Street Target
$18.10
(+56.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.86
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$10.21
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$9.59
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$47.96
(+315%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$14.46
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$12.29
(+6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$13.89
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:19 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-11
Top Rated Packaged Foods Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Packaged Foods by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FRPT
Freshpet Inc |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$82 | 57 HOLD |
|
DAR
Darling Ingredients Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$76 | 57 HOLD |
|
BRBR
Bellring Brands LLC |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$15 | 52 HOLD |
|
CPB
Campbell’s Co |
SELL
23 analysts |
$24 | 64 BUY |
|
SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$117 | 67 BUY |
