SOFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SOFI - SoFi Technologies, Inc. Common Stock
$16.02
0.71 (4.64%)
▲
5d:
+0.12%
30d:
-14.74%
90d:
-16.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
SOFI is down 18.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-06-18 with 48,758 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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94 traders called SOFI this week
84% bullish • 22 bearish
84% bullish • 22 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SOFI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SOFI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.65
32.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SOFI is currently trading at $16.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.78 to $18.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.5) compared to its historical average (31.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 101.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SOFI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.21, while resistance sits at $16.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SOFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.10 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SOFI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.21, while resistance sits at $16.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SOFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.10 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$15.78 -
$18.47
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($21.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.78 -
$18.47
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.22
Resistance Level
$16.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.47
Wall Street Target
$21.10
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
101.2%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 31.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.42
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.98
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.68
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→31)
$17.91
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 34.5%)
$42.00
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.5, Growth: 34.5%)
$39.02
(+144%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.4, Growth: 34.5%)
$33.16
(+107%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$29.78
(+86%)
Analyst growth 73.9%, PE expands to 38.1
Base Case
$27.07
(+69%)
Market implied 73.9%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$10.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.5 to 31.4
Stabilization Target:
$24.57
(+53.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SOFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelli Keough
SELL
9742 shares
2026-04-21
Kelli Keough
SELL
9742 shares
2026-03-20
Jeremy Rishel
SELL
94958 shares
2026-03-18
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Advanced SOFI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SOFI price and gamma walls.
