SPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.
$182.35
2.16 (1.20%)
▲
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
-10.55%
90d:
-2.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SPG is down 6.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $200 2026-04-17 with 2,006 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.81
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $182.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.35 to $200.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.4) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 358.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $206.30 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $206.30 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$184.35 -
$200.83
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($206.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$184.35 -
$200.83
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.88
Resistance Level
$192.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.38
Wall Street Target
$206.30
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
358.1%
Profit Margin
72.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.4 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$180.34
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$178.36
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$176.40
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→27)
$181.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$209.50
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$177.50
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$150.87
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.17
Bull Case
$101.49
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$92.26
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$125.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.4 to 27.2
Stabilization Target:
$188.02
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
13
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
Daniel C Smith
BUY
347 shares
2025-12-31
Stefan M Selig
BUY
201 shares
2025-12-31
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Advanced SPG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPG price and gamma walls.
