SPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.
$191.31
1.51 (0.80%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 02, 2026
1d
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1 traders called SPG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SPG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.30
Based on 1.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $191.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.66 to $187.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $190.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $190.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$183.66 -
$187.67
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($197.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$183.66 -
$187.67
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$180.17
Resistance Level
$190.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.58
Wall Street Target
$197.40
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.4%
Profit Margin
36.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
27.6 vs 26.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$191.70
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$193.61
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$195.55
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$190.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.6, Growth: -1.2%)
$183.14
(+-4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -1.2%)
$148.09
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -1.2%)
$125.88
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 26.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.87
Bull Case
$202.50
(+6%)
Analyst growth 0.2%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$184.09
(-4%)
Market implied 0.2%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$124.96
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
12
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gary M Rodkin
BUY
219 shares
2025-09-30
Glyn Aeppel
BUY
208 shares
2025-09-30
Larry C Glasscock
BUY
351 shares
2025-09-30
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