SPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPG - Simon Property Group, Inc.
$188.67
0.58 (0.31%)
▲
5d:
+3.78%
30d:
-7.1%
90d:
+1.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
SPG is up 3.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $160 2026-06-18 with 3,518 OI. Put ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.81
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPG is currently trading at $188.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.62 to $199.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.2) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $191.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $191.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$183.62 -
$199.65
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($206.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$183.62 -
$199.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.88
Resistance Level
$191.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.21
Wall Street Target
$206.30
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
358.1%
Profit Margin
72.7%
PE vs Historical
27.2 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.09
(0%)
2-Year Target
$188.09
(0%)
3-Year Target
$188.09
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$188.02
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.2, Growth: 4.7%)
$216.09
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$177.50
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$150.87
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.17
Bull Case
$101.49
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$92.26
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$125.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
13
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
Daniel C Smith
BUY
347 shares
2025-12-31
Stefan M Selig
BUY
201 shares
2025-12-31
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Advanced SPG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPG price and gamma walls.
