STAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STAG - STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC.
$38.04
-0.33 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-1.63%
30d:
-1.07%
90d:
+2.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STAG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STAG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.88
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STAG is currently trading at $38.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.79 to $39.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.7) is in line with its historical norms (34.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$37.79 -
$39.27
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.79 -
$39.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.46
Resistance Level
$39.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.73
Wall Street Target
$41.45
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.7 vs 34.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.81
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.58
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.36
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→34)
$38.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$52.70
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 11.5%)
$34.43
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$29.27
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 29.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$36.90
(-3%)
Analyst growth -12.6%, PE expands to 32.7
Base Case
$33.54
(-12%)
Market implied -12.6%, PE stable at 29.7
Bear Case
$26.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.7 to 34.4
Stabilization Target:
$38.79
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matts Pinard
SELL
25242 shares
2026-02-23
William R Crooker
SELL
93732 shares
2026-02-23
Virgis Colbert
SELL
18000 shares
2026-02-19
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