STLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STLD - Steel Dynamics Inc
$180.20
-2.65 (-1.45%)
▼
5d:
+3.31%
30d:
-7.07%
90d:
+6.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
STLD is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-05-15 with 8,430 OI. Call ratio: 95% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$305.88
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$189.93
5.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STLD is currently trading at $180.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.20 to $191.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $184.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $184.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$170.20 -
$191.98
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($193.46)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$170.20 -
$191.98
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.19
Resistance Level
$184.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.43
Wall Street Target
$193.46
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.7%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$176.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$172.36
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$168.57
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$179.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$501.17
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 15.6%)
$278.49
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 15.6%)
$236.71
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.98
Bull Case
$354.71
(+113%)
Analyst growth 96.7%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$322.46
(+94%)
Market implied 96.7%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$111.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$192.34
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
Miguel Alvarez
SELL
8251 shares
2025-10-29
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