STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$156.70
1.95 (1.26%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 07, 2026
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1 traders called STZ this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.29
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $156.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.14 to $159.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.5) compared to its historical average (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $152.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.73 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $152.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.73 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$141.14 -
$159.15
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($170.73)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.0% growth with -9.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$141.14 -
$159.15
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.98
Resistance Level
$164.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.52
Wall Street Target
$170.73
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.94
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$167.38
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$174.07
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$154.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$331.19
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$185.98
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 6.3%)
$158.08
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.37
Bull Case
$336.61
(+115%)
Analyst growth 94.0%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$306.01
(+95%)
Market implied 94.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$107.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-11
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
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