TCPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCPC - BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Common Stock
$4.19
-0.05 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
+18.36%
90d:
-18.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.79
Based on -6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCPC is currently trading at $4.19, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.63 to $4.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCPC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCPC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCPC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$3.63 -
$4.21
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.63 -
$4.21
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.08
Resistance Level
$4.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.50
Wall Street Target
$4.33
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-28.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
-44.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.35
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$4.46
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$4.58
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: -16.6%)
$9.80
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: -16.6%)
$3.09
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: -16.6%)
$2.63
(-38%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 12:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
6850 shares
2026-03-13
Patrick Wolfe
BUY
2075 shares
2026-03-13
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