TD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TD - Toronto Dominion Bank
$107.64
-0.60 (-0.55%)
▼
5d:
+0.17%
30d:
+3.46%
90d:
+12.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.00
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $107.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.48 to $107.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$101.48 -
$107.94
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($98.26)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$101.48 -
$107.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.76
Resistance Level
$109.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.37
Wall Street Target
$98.26
(-8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.3%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.33
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$113.09
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$115.92
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$107.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.8%)
$302.94
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$142.32
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$120.98
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.02
Bull Case
$137.03
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$124.57
(+16%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$73.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TD price and gamma walls.
