TOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$136.47
6.01 (4.61%)
▲
5d:
+0.01%
30d:
-11.54%
90d:
-1.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.86
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.79
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $136.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $135.60 to $155.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $129.92, while resistance sits at $141.06. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: TOL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.75 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $129.92, while resistance sits at $141.06. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: TOL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.75 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$135.60 -
$155.70
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($172.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$135.60 -
$155.70
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$129.92
Resistance Level
$141.07
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.53
Wall Street Target
$172.75
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.60
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$130.80
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$128.05
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$137.12
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$448.86
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 11.9%)
$191.31
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 11.9%)
$162.61
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.93
Bull Case
$149.33
(+8%)
Analyst growth 2.8%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$135.76
(-2%)
Market implied 2.8%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$89.76
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$146.13
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Douglas C Jr. Yearley
SELL
45116 shares
2026-02-24
Paul E Shapiro
SELL
3965 shares
2026-01-15
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOL price and gamma walls.
