TOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$144.49
-2.58 (-1.75%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$201.39
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $144.49, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.22 to $146.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$137.22 -
$146.83
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($154.13)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with 2.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$137.22 -
$146.83
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.94
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.72
Resistance Level
$151.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$154.13
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$150.92
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$152.88
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$146.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.8%)
$432.47
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 10.8%)
$200.10
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 10.8%)
$170.09
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.49
Bull Case
$168.52
(+17%)
Analyst growth 5.7%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$153.20
(+6%)
Market implied 5.7%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$98.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul E Shapiro
SELL
3812 shares
2025-09-05
Douglas C Jr. Yearley
SELL
25000 shares
2025-08-29
Robert Parahus
SELL
9831 shares
2025-08-21
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Advanced TOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOL price and gamma walls.
