TOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOUR - Tuniu Corporation
$6.11
-0.06 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
+7.01%
30d:
+746.26%
90d:
+953.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 05, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.22
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $6.11, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.89 to $7.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.8) is in line with its historical norms (2.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.71, while resistance sits at $6.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.15 (+177.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.71, while resistance sits at $6.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.15 (+177.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$1.89 -
$7.29
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 177.9% below Wall St target ($17.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1.89 -
$7.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.71
Resistance Level
$6.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.81
Wall Street Target
$17.15
(+177.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.99
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.82
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$5.65
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$6.23
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 41.7%)
$213.35
(+3358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 41.7%)
$17.54
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 41.7%)
$14.91
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$13.62
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$12.38
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$4.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.8 to 2.0
Stabilization Target:
$6.80
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Yu Dunde
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-24
Anqiang Chen
BUY
280 shares
2026-03-23
Yu Dunde
BUY
2700 shares
2026-03-23
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