TPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPC - Tutor Perini Corporation
$77.30
58.81 (318.06%)
▲
5d:
+1.39%
30d:
+4.87%
90d:
+15.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -33.9% annual earnings decline despite 2342% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -33.9% annual earnings decline despite 2342% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.48
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPC is currently trading at $77.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.03 to $81.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.1) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 33.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2341.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $79.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 318.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.50 (+492.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $79.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 318.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.50 (+492.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$23.03 -
$81.80
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+318.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 492.2% below Wall St target ($109.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.03 -
$81.80
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.32
Resistance Level
$79.37
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.14
Wall Street Target
$109.50
(+492.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2341.5%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-33.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.1 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-33.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.98
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→11)
$46.79
(+153%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.2%)
$222.72
(+1105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.1, Growth: 19.2%)
$31.29
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.7, Growth: 19.2%)
$26.59
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$152.55
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.5
Base Case
$138.68
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.9
Bear Case
$47.15
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.1 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$64.19
(+247.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+247.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter Arkley
BUY
8117 shares
2026-03-06
Peter Arkley
BUY
10999 shares
2026-03-05
Gary G Smalley
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-04
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