Is TPH stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TPH is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TPH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TPH to be between $46.32 and $46.64. The current price is $46.75.

What is the analyst price target for TPH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TPH is $47.00. This implies a potential upside of 0.5% from current levels.

TPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TPH - Tri Pointe Homes, Inc.

OPERATIVE BUILDERS

$46.75

0.20 (0.43%) ▲

5d: +0.17%

30d: +0.86%

90d: +48.55%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 23, 2026 17d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$81.41

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$50.55

7.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TPH is currently trading at $46.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.32 to $46.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Fair Price Range $46.32 - $46.64

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 49.5%

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.00)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.8% growth with -22.4% revenue growth

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $46.32 - $46.64

Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $46.55

Resistance Level $46.76

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Apr 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.00

Wall Street Target $47.00 (+0.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -22.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -48.9%

Profit Margin 7.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.8% premium

PE vs Historical 18.0 vs 16.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $48.53 (+4%)

2-Year Target $50.37 (+8%)

3-Year Target $52.28 (+12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→16) PE COMPRESSION $46.76 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.6, Growth: 26.5%) $108.03 (+131%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 26.5%) $94.56 (+102%)

Bear: (PE: 15.3, Growth: 26.5%) $80.37 (+72%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 17.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.72

Bull Case $48.96 (+5%)

Analyst growth -4.5%, PE expands to 18.9

Base Case $44.51 (-5%)

Market implied -4.5%, PE stable at 17.1

Bear Case $31.70 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: April 05, 2026 8:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-02-23

Steven J Gilbert SELL 50000 shares 2026-02-19

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