TPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$433.62
-10.05 (-2.27%)
▼
5d:
-1.21%
30d:
-1.27%
90d:
+24.47%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
TPL is down 14.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $390 2026-05-15 with 41 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$365.56
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$226.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPL is currently trading at $433.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $411.10 to $483.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 40.9) compared to its historical average (24.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.2% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $420.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $420.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$411.10 -
$483.85
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($445.50)
- BEARISH: Market expects 19.2% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$411.10 -
$483.85
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$29.04
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$420.79
Resistance Level
$449.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.89
Wall Street Target
$445.50
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Profit Margin
60.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.2% premium
PE vs Historical
40.9 vs 24.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$516.88
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$616.12
(+42%)
3-Year Target
$734.41
(+69%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$432.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$591.78
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 10.9%)
$298.41
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 10.9%)
$253.65
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 37.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $11.49
Bull Case
$523.60
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.6
Base Case
$433.62
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$331.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 02, 2026 12:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Donna E Epps
BUY
895 shares
2026-02-25
Stephanie Buffington
SELL
1608 shares
2026-02-24
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