TRV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRV - The Travelers Companies, Inc.
$284.51
0.22 (0.08%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$360.84
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$224.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRV is currently trading at $284.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $275.05 to $290.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRV is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $286.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRV is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $286.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$275.05 -
$290.03
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($300.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$275.05 -
$290.03
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$268.00
Resistance Level
$286.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.06
Wall Street Target
$300.45
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.4%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$279.46
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$274.71
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$270.04
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$284.44
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.6%)
$701.28
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 3.6%)
$316.46
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 3.6%)
$268.99
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $27.44
Bull Case
$319.40
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$290.37
(+2%)
Market implied 3.0%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$191.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$299.45
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Mojgan M Lefebvre
SELL
16820 shares
2025-08-22
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