HCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCI - HCI Group, Inc.
$156.56
0.12 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
+2.84%
30d:
+0.22%
90d:
-0.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.27
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCI is currently trading at $156.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.80 to $156.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $156.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $245.00 (+56.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $156.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $245.00 (+56.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$151.80 -
$156.23
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.6% below Wall St target ($245.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.80 -
$156.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.75
Resistance Level
$156.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.66
Wall Street Target
$245.00
(+56.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$150.65
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$145.08
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$139.71
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$156.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$509.20
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 8.5%)
$199.96
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 8.5%)
$169.97
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.82
Bull Case
$133.97
(-14%)
Analyst growth -20.8%, PE expands to 7.4
Base Case
$121.79
(-22%)
Market implied -20.8%, PE stable at 6.7
Bear Case
$104.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$175.33
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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