TSEM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSEM - Tower Semiconductor Ltd
$211.02
1.02 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
-3.21%
30d:
+3.53%
90d:
+51.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
TSEM is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $190 2026-06-18 with 8,462 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSEM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSEM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSEM is currently trading at $211.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $190.39 to $220.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 43.3) compared to its historical average (38.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSEM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $184.14, while resistance sits at $232.67.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $173.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSEM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $184.14, while resistance sits at $232.67.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $173.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$190.39 -
$220.25
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.0% above Wall St target ($173.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$190.39 -
$220.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.14
Resistance Level
$232.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.33
Wall Street Target
$173.00
(-18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Profit Margin
14.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
43.3 vs 38.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$220.30
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$230.00
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$240.12
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$211.13
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.3, Growth: 64.3%)
$712.19
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 64.3%)
$360.61
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 64.3%)
$306.52
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (76x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (43x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 76.34 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.76
Bull Case
$254.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 80.2
Base Case
$211.02
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 76.3
Bear Case
$161.43
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 68.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSEM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TSEM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSEM price and gamma walls.
