TSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
$434.16
-10.07 (-2.27%)
▼
5d:
-0.19%
30d:
-2.81%
90d:
+27.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
12d
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Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TSM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$807.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$501.32
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSM is currently trading at $434.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $419.02 to $451.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $419.19, while resistance sits at $479.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $487.56 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $419.19, while resistance sits at $479.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $487.56 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$419.02 -
$451.40
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($487.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$419.02 -
$451.40
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$419.19
Resistance Level
$479.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.57
Wall Street Target
$487.56
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Profit Margin
46.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 20.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$440.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$447.28
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$453.99
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$433.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.2%)
$902.22
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 27.2%)
$893.59
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 27.2%)
$759.55
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.51
Bull Case
$854.46
(+97%)
Analyst growth 74.9%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$776.78
(+79%)
Market implied 74.9%, PE stable at 38.6
Bear Case
$302.08
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Che-Chia Wei
BUY
186 shares
2026-04-09
Cleo Fields
BUY
2026-04-09
Bor-Zen Tien
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-22
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