TYL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TYL - Tyler Technologies, Inc.
$311.89
12.81 (4.28%)
▲
5d:
-3.91%
30d:
-8.22%
90d:
+2.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TYL is down 5.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $350 2026-06-18 with 189 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TYL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TYL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$544.75
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$338.25
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TYL is currently trading at $311.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $321.58 to $343.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (28.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TYL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $294.36, while resistance sits at $338.14. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TYL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $445.14 (+42.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TYL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $294.36, while resistance sits at $338.14. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TYL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $445.14 (+42.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$321.58 -
$343.49
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.7% below Wall St target ($445.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$321.58 -
$343.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$294.36
Resistance Level
$338.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.72
Wall Street Target
$445.14
(+42.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
13.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 28.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$285.38
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$261.12
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$238.93
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→28)
$312.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$463.03
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 13.5%)
$455.68
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 13.5%)
$387.33
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.24
Bull Case
$652.51
(+109%)
Analyst growth 98.3%, PE expands to 45.4
Base Case
$593.19
(+90%)
Market implied 98.3%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$203.37
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 28.4
Stabilization Target:
$407.82
(+30.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TYL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
Glenn A Carter
SELL
1624 shares
2026-03-12
Jeffrey David Puckett
SELL
5174 shares
2026-03-05
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Advanced TYL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TYL price and gamma walls.
