UDMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UDMY - Udemy, Inc. Common Stock
$4.63
-0.40 (-7.95%)
▼
5d:
-6.09%
30d:
+3.58%
90d:
-1.28%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UDMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UDMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.18
35.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UDMY is currently trading at $4.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.52 to $5.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UDMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.19, while resistance sits at $5.17. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.60 (+64.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UDMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.19, while resistance sits at $5.17. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.60 (+64.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.52 -
$5.00
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 64.2% below Wall St target ($7.60)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.52 -
$5.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.19
Resistance Level
$5.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.02
Wall Street Target
$7.60
(+64.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.25
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$3.91
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$3.59
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$4.61
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 32.0%)
$33.30
(+619%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 32.0%)
$10.66
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 32.0%)
$9.06
(+96%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 44.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.10
Bull Case
$5.59
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 46.5
Base Case
$4.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$3.54
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 39.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$5.94
(+28.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UDMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sarah Blanchard
SELL
25000 shares
2026-03-13
Sarah Blanchard
SELL
25000 shares
2025-12-15
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